Real Data · Real Business · Real Decision

This is what Headwaters
shows your business.

Below is a live walkthrough using actual marketing data from Birch Hill Inn in Center Harbor, NH. This is exactly what you get when you upload your data.

Data used with permission. Analysis runs in under 60 seconds.

Business
Birch Hill Inn
Boutique Inn · Center Harbor, NH
Season Analyzed
Summer 2024
May — September (peak season)
Monthly Marketing Spend
$4,400 / month
Google, Facebook, TripAdvisor, Email
$4,400
Monthly spend analyzed
4
Marketing channels tracked
97.2%
Model accuracy (R²)
$1,200
Monthly budget freed up
Finding 1

Which channels are actually driving bookings?

Headwaters ran a marketing mix model on Birch Hill Inn's data. Here is the channel contribution breakdown — which percentage of their booking revenue can be attributed to each marketing channel.

Channel Contribution to Booking Revenue
Birch Hill Inn · Summer 2024 · Based on actual spend and booking data
71%
Google Search
Primary driver — every dollar here worked hard
19%
TripAdvisor
Solid secondary channel
6%
Email
High ROI per dollar spent
4%
Facebook
Highest spend, lowest return

"We were spending $4,400 a month across Google, Facebook, and TripAdvisor. We had no idea which one was filling our rooms and which one was burning money."

— Birch Hill Inn, Center Harbor NH

What they did about it
1

Cut Facebook spend by 75%. It was consuming a significant budget share while driving less than 4% of bookings.

2

Moved the freed budget into Google Search and email. The model confirmed these had the highest return per dollar spent.

3

Monitored the next season. Ran Headwaters again at end of season to validate the decision.

"Finished the season with the same booking volume and spent $1,200 less per month on marketing."

Finding 2

How well does the model fit your real data?

The chart below shows Birch Hill Inn's actual monthly bookings (solid line) vs. what the Headwaters model predicted (dashed line). The closer these lines are, the more reliable the attribution analysis.

Actual Bookings vs. Model Prediction
Birch Hill Inn · January–December 2024 · Monthly booking count
Actual bookings
Model prediction
Model fit (R²): 0.972 — High confidence. The model closely tracks actual booking patterns season-over-season.
Your Data. Your Business. Your Decision.

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Upload your marketing spend and booking data. Headwaters runs your model in under 60 seconds. You'll know exactly which channels are working.

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